BTC RISKterminal

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accumulatedcaholddistribute

15-MIN CALL coinbase · 1-min model

btc above $ in 15 min?
fitting the model…

    STRIKE LADDER LAB 15-min fit · zero-poll

    strikep(above) · 15 minyes
    model warming…
    odds re-priced locally from the 15-MIN CALL quantile table

    MOSCOW TIME LAB waiting for price…

    1 $ = — sats

    sats per $1, read as a clock — last two digits are the minutes
    1,579 sats → 15:79 · flips green when the dollar buys more sats

    HALVING CLOCK

    syncing…
    block to go

    DIFFICULTY EPOCH LAB syncing…

    —.——%
    est. adjustment
    syncing with the chain…
    epoch to go
    pace /block
    prev retarget
    SECURITY BUDGET · 144 BLK
    syncing…

    BOOK DEPTH

    ₿ resting in the book between spot and each price

    BLOCK GRAFFITI LAB syncing…

    • syncing — waiting for the chain tip…

    coinbase tags + OP_RETURNs · sampled: first 25 txs/block

    PRICE × RISK png ↗

    NODE MAP

    reachable bitcoin nodes by location · dot ≈ nodes in a 0.1° cell · arcs illustrative

    THE BLOCK — 3D

    BITCOIN BLOCK — LIVE CUTAWAY
    syncing with the chain tip…
    THE MACHINE, OPENED the shell splits open every few seconds — drag to orbit
    drag to orbit · esc to exit · rebuilds on every block found

    FEE WEATHER LAB syncing…

    walking the projected blocks…

    forecast — dashed blocks aren't mined yet · fill = fullness · color = median sat/vB

    BLOCKS — LIVE ASSEMBLY LAB

    CYCLE RULERS LAB fitting…

    POWER-LAW FAIR
    MAYER ×200D SMA
    syncing…

    log-log least squares over all shipped history · band = 5th–95th pct of fit residuals

    HOW RISK IS MADE

    Each signal is ranked against its own trailing 4 years; risk is the average of the three percentiles. The headline number moves live: today's exact risk-vs-price curve, evaluated at the live price.

    4-YR Z-SCORE
    (price − 4yr SMA) / 4yr σ
    20-WK EXTENSION
    ln(price / 20w SMA)
    MOMENTUM
    50d SMA / 50w SMA
    mean → risk

    LEVERAGE TEMP LAB syncing…

    FUNDING APR reading the tape…
    ◂ shorts payflatlongs pay ▸
    perpssyncing…

    APR = 8h funding × 1095 (×3 ×365) · deribit = trailing 8h realized · okx = current period · carry = nearest quarterly mark ⁄ spot − 1, × 365 ⁄ days

    MARKET FABRIC

    connecting · price: coinbase
    market fabric · loading last 10,000 trades…

      WHALE WATCH — ON-CHAIN LAB syncing…

      • syncing…

      relay txs ≥ 10 ₿ · sampled from relay — not exhaustive

      LIGHTNING PULSELAB syncing…

      ₿ routable
      public channel capacity — syncing…
      channels
      nodes
      med channel
      clearnet both tor private
      TOP LIQUIDITY
      • ranking the giants…

      public lightning network · 7d deltas vs last week · spark deepens with use

      YOUR RULES

      TODAY'S ORDER × RISK

      buy + reserve sell

      Front-loaded accumulation: the full budget is spent through the whole accumulate zone and tapers to $0 only across the DCA band, while the reserve deploys hard in deep value (backtested 2015–2026: +20% vs the old taper-from-zero rules). Everything runs in this browser — holdings live in localStorage and never touch the server.